top of page

Advanced Stats by Pat Vol. 3

Number three in the series deserves some deep advanced statistics. Ever wonder why Yadier Molina's speed in MLB The Show is a zero? Read to find out:

Barrel: This uses exit velocity and launch angle based off of the pitches speed to determine the optimal launch angle. I personally love this statistic because it can be used for both pitchers and hitters.To be classified as a "Barreled ball", the pitch must have an exit velocity of at least 98mph. This at 99mph, the optimal launch angle is between 25-31 degrees. The range increases the faster the pitches exit velocity is. This is sort of a double-edged sword that high velocity pitchers deal with. If you throw 98mph+, it's easier to put the ball over the fence because the ball has done most of the work. You just have to match that speed to redirect the ball, but hitters that try to match this speed often strike out. Last year, the top three leaders in barrels per at bat were Nelson Cruz (12.5% barrels per at bat), Gary Sanchez (11.7%), and Mike Trout (11%). Barrels are a great statistic to follow to show the true power hitters in baseball. The weakest hitters were Billy Hamilton, Tony Wolters, and Dee Gordon with 0 barrels last year.

Outfield Catch Probability: Outfield Catch Probability (OCP) is a combination of Catch Probability and Outs Above Average (OAA). What this attempts to capture are the outfielders that make spectacular catches above the routine popouts that exist. This metric takes into account the fielders position on the field, the reaction the fielder has, and the distance needed which makes up Catch Probability and OAA. As mentioned before, all defensive statistics are tough to measure. Thanks to Statcast, they are able to pinpoint where the players is standing, what pitch was hit to which spot on the field, and how fast they are running to get there. They're disected in to 1-star (91%-95% probability) catches to 5-star (0%-25%) catches. Last years leaders overall leaders were Victor Robles (23 OAA), Kevin Kiermaier (17), and Lorenzo Cain (14). Byron Buxton lead all fielders with a 36.4% success rate on 5-star catches. The worst in terms of making spectacular plays last year were Eddie Rosario (-17), Domingo Santana (-13), and Shin-Soo Choo (-12). Delino DeShields actually failed to make any 5-star plays in 19 attempts last year, but ended with 12 OAA.

Sprint Speed: Simply put, it's how fast a players top running speed is. Sprint speed is measured by "competitive plays". These include runs of two bases or more on non-home run plays (excluding a runner on second when an extra base hit happens) and home-to-first runs on weakly hit balls. The league average hovers around 27 feet per second. The fastest players from last year were Tim Locastro (30.8 ft/sec), Trea Turner (30.4 ft/sec), and Byron Buxton (30.3 ft/sec). The slowest players last year were Brian McCann (22.2), Albert Pujols (22.5) and Yadier Molina (22.8).

bottom of page