Alec Bohm - Triple Crown Future?
Alec Bohm was the Phillies number one prospect and the leagues 31st overall coming in to 2020. Bohm was drafted by the Phillies in 2018 in the first round. It only took two years in the minors for Bohm to make his debut. While in the minors, he had a slash line of .293/.368/.474 and hit 21 home runs in 165 games. Once Bohm made it to the majors he improved, batting .338/.400/.481. Bohm's best attributes are his approach to the plate and raw power. These two tools already make him a major league level hitter. Does he have the skills to compete at the major league level?
Outs Above Average (OAA) 69th percentile
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) At 1B: 0 ---At 3B: -5
Ultimate Zone Rating: At 1B (UZR): .5 -----At 3B: -1.6
When Bohm was drafted, it was noted his fielding was average at best. Ever since he's been drafted, the Phillies and Bohm have worked tirelessly to improve his standing at third base. As you can see by DRS and UZR, Bohm is struggling slightly at third base. For an example, Nolan Arenado, the best third basemen this past year in terms of fielding, registered a UZR of 8.5 and the league average is 1.. Bohm lacks the quickness and range that a third basemen needs to be successful in the hot corner, but does have an above average arm for it. The Phillies swapped him over to first base where he saw average success.
xBA 86th percentile
xwOBA 74th percentile
K% 64th percentile
Whiff % 54th percentile
Bohm's slash line this past year was .338/.400/.481/.881. His calling card coming into the draft was his approach at the plate. Bohm just missed qualifying for this past years leaderboards, but in 44 games, Bohm would have been 24th in SO, and 11th in OBP. Check out his batted ball profile from the past year:
There is a lot of red here. Bohm excels at hitting the ball over most of the plate, with exception of above the strike zone. Bohm will not miss a pitchers mistakes as you can see by the middle chart. His pitch percentages that he saw was interesting. He saw a fastball almost 63% off the time (breaking ball 27.4%, offspeed 9.7%). On those fastballs, Bohm hit .337 and only whiffed 18.9% of the time on them. His plate discipline was MLB average across the board with exception to his meatball swing % which was 86.8% compared to 75.1%. He did have a decent amount more of ground balls as well, 54% compared to the league average 45.3%. I can see Bohm elevating the ball more in the years to come, leading to a surge in home runs. His best grade was his raw power, which is just waiting to be unleashed.
Hitting for Power
Exit Velo (EV) 73rd percentile
Hard Hit % 84th percentile
xSLG 68th percentile
Barrel % 68th percentile
As mentioned in the previous section, Bohm's raw power is just waiting to be unleashed. His impressive Statcast numbers should have Phillies fans excited. Bohm will hit every pitcher mistake. Right now, those hits are turning into groundballs to the third base side about 44% of the time. once he elevates this more, Bohm can be a perennial 30 HR player. He only hit four this past year, but also registered a hard hit ball 47% of the time. I don't see the same raw power out of Bohm that I do with Vlad Jr for example, but this type of approach to the plate coupled with the ability to hit it 440' would lead me to seeing a path to hit like Miguel Cabrera. Enjoy his longest and first Major League homer:
Sprint Speed 64th percentile
Perhaps Bohm's worst grade was his running ability. Coming into the league, he was rated a 35/80. He still is young, so his running will only deteriorate from here, but he was slightly above average for third basemen in terms of home to first timing. I would say that's a win.
Bohm's willingness to not swing at pitches out of the zone, coupled with his raw power that's hindered by the groundball rate, leads me to believe that Bohm will be the middle of the order guy for his career. Because of these tools, he should be able to compete for the Triple Crown. I know that's lofty expectations, especially given the shortened season and limited data, but the foundation is there. The only question mark with Bohm is his ability in the field. Bohm would hold more value if he can play third, but so far it may not be possible.