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What Are The Odds? - MVP Edition

Welcome to Spring Training! In what seemed like a quick offseason, baseball is back. Let's check out the preseason odds for MVP:



Top Three:

  • Mike Trout (+225) will always top this list (maybe until Wander Franco shows up...). He was still in the tops of the leaderboards in every Statcast categories in 2020, and will continue to be there in 2021.

  • Alex Bregman (+1000) had a tough 2020 by his standards, after being below his career averages in every aspect of his game. With George Springer gone, and Altuve seemingly falling off, Bregman is now the face of the Astros franchise.

  • Aaron Judge (+1200) is one of those players that the conversation usually starts with "if he can stay healthy...". Along with Trout, he's usually in the top five for most Statcast categories as well as home runs. Playing in Yankee Stadium surely helps.

Best value:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr (+2500) improved on his 2019 debut last year by increasing his hard hit percentage and exit velocity. He played every game last year, and shed 45lbs over the offseason. I'm looking at him shifting over to 1B at some point this year, thus increasing that offensive production.

  • Luis Robert (+2500) is coming off his inaugural season grabbing Gold Glove honors and barely missing the Rookie of the Year award. A full year of LuBob means a player flirting with a 30/30 season while still providing that Gold Glove center field defense. If the White Sox outperform expectations, look to Robert being towards the top of the MVP lists.

  • Matt Chapman (+1400) is arguably the best defensive third basemen in the league. The road map for Chappy to win the MVP is to put together a 40 home run season with that Gold Glove defense.



Top Three:

  • Mookie Betts (+650) was forever shadowed by Mike Trout in the MVP voting when he was a member of the Red Sox. With 2021 the first full season with the team, Mookie has garnered the top spot going into the season.

  • Cody Bellinger (+750) had a down year last year, to his standards. He saw drops in almost all of his traditional statistics, but be aware that he was one of the more unlucky players in the league. This 1B/OF looks to steal the spotlight from his teammate Mookie.

  • Juan Soto (+750) is already one of the best hitters in the league. At 22 years old, he's shown the lethal combination at the plate of patience and power. This was evident last year, finishing the truncated season with a 1.185 OPS.

Best Value:

  • Bryce Harper (+1400) had an incredible season last year. He was in the top 7% of every hitter for every Statcast category that had to deal with batted ball. As usual, his peak plate discipline had him on pace for 150 walks last year. Couple that with his chart topping power, I can see a world where he eclipses 45 home runs this year.

  • Nolan Arenado (+1000) was traded from the Rockies over to the Cardinals this offseason. In his 8 year career, he's won a Gold Glove in every year, four Silver Sluggers, and four Platinum Glove awards. While he's routinely above 37 homers per year, playing away from Colorado may take some of those away. Given the tight division, if the Cardinals can win the division with Arenado being the best player, he could hoist that MVP trophy.

  • Francisco Lindor (+1200) was another player that was traded this offseason, heading over from Cleveland to the Mets. Anytime there is a consistent, power hitting middle infielder, they are always in the discussion for MVP. There will be a lot of eyes on New York this year, and they may steal the spotlight away from their crosstown rivals. Although Pete Alonso is on this team, look for Lindor to be the headliner.



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